Thursday, July 03, 2008

Hypothetical Obama - McCain Showdown

I think stuff like this is just very cool.

A site I came across -- Five Thirty Eight dot com -- apparently ran the upcoming 2008 Presidential election through 10,000 different scenarios, I'm guessing based on data they have and info they have analyzed.

Some of these stats are very striking. For example, the likelihood of an Obama landslide is over 26%, while McCain's odds of a landslide are just over 5%. Also, the odds of Obama carrying all of John Kerry's states from 2004 is almost 60%, but McCain's chances of carrying all of Bush's 2004 states is just below 14%.

Interestingly, this poll shows that the value of winning Ohio is not possibly as important as once thought. Here, Obama's chances of winning the election without Ohio is over 10%, and McCain's chance of the same scenario is just under 9%; Ohio, while important, is much less crucial than Pennsylvania. Obama's chances of winning the election without PA is an astounding 0.07%, virtually nil. McCain's odds of 2.98% in the same scenario, while lofty by comparison, still spell out Pennsylvania as being a dire need, and likely THE key swing state this election.

If my boy Tim Russert were alive today, he might be writing "Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania" on a dry-erase board. It's four months away but I still can't wait.

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